Can the Central United States Learn from Haiti?
January 13th, 2012
As we reflect upon the two year anniversary of the devastating M7.0 earthquake in Haiti, and approach the bicentennial of the 1811-1812 New Madrid earthquake sequence, many parallels may be drawn. Looking at these two events, there are numerous similarities that can inform the preparedness efforts we can effect now, in the United States, to keep buildings safe and businesses operational when the next significant event occurs in the New Madrid Seismic Zone.
One of the most striking similarities is the historical context of the timeframes and generational memories of the inhabitants within the regions. Prior to the Haiti earthquake of 2010 just over two hundred years had elapsed since a previous similarly devastating event had occurred. Further, like the New Madrid region, the expected frequency of large earthquakes is measured in centuries rather than decades.
Absence of Historic Context
As our conversations with residents of Port-au-Prince found, this long time period allowed generations to come and go without passing along prominent memories or personal stories of past experiences to influence the present or future mindset of the current populations.
This absence of context for potential earthquakes creates a lack of awareness and therefore, a false sense of security and certainly a lack of urgency for those living within the potentially affected areas.
When asked where significant earthquakes occur in the United States, most of the population will quickly identify the states of California, Alaska, and possibly Hawaii. Some individuals may even include Oregon and Washington, but few individuals will identify the Central United States as a region that could be affected and in fact has felt the effects of a major earthquake. An example of this lack of awareness and urgency can be measured by the participation in preparedness drills; last year’s Great Central U.S. Shakeout drew an approximate 3 million participants or under 5% of the populations of the eight states most likely to be affected by an event within the New Madrid Fault zone, by comparison last year’s Great California Shakeout drew over 8.5 million participants, approximately 25% of the state’s population.
Lessons from Haiti
So what should the remaining 95% of the New Madrid region’s residents learn from Haiti, and why should they care?
On January 12, 2010, the Republic of Haiti was struck by a M7.0 earthquake. According to USGS, during the 20th century and prior to this event, seismic activity within the island of Hispaniola had been concentrated on the eastern 2/3 of the island in the Dominican Republic, with only one earthquake in the Port-au-Prince region since 1964 registering greater than M4.0. Historically, though, larger (>M7.0) earthquakes have affected the region in 1701, 1751, 1770, and 1860 due largely to movement of the east-west-oriented Enriquillo Fault located just south of Port-au-Prince.
From December 1811 to February 1812, a series of three earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.0 or greater rocked New Madrid Seismic Zone. According to USGS, the main shocks were followed by many hundreds of aftershocks that lasted for decades. Many of the aftershocks were major earthquakes themselves. The area that was strongly shaken by the three main shocks was 2–3 times as large as the area shaken by the 1964 M9.2 Alaskan earthquake, and 10 times as large as that of the 1906 M7.8 San Francisco earthquake.
New Madrid Seismic Zone
It is estimated that the ground motion for a possible major earthquake event in the New Madrid Seismic Zone could be higher than associated with a major California Earthquake. In fact, according to USGS data, the anticipated ground motion which can result from an earthquake event triggered within the New Madrid Seismic Zone could be up to 17% greater than the anticipated ground motions in Los Angeles and up to 92% greater than anticipated ground motions in San Francisco for comparably significant earthquake events in those areas. But what is the likelihood of such an event happening? USGS reports indicate the chance of having a magnitude 6.7 or larger earthquake over the next 30 years is greater than 65% for Los Angeles and the chance of having a 6.0 or greater magnitude earthquake in the next 50 years within the New Madrid Zone is between 25 to 40 percent. And while a M6.0 earthquake in Memphis is smaller than the 6.7 considered for Los Angeles, it must be remembered that the capacity to resist such earthquakes is significantly less due to far less stringent building practices in the New Madrid region.
Haiti’s devastating earthquake highlights what could happen in Middle America near the vicinity of New Madrid, Missouri. Over 70% of the building inventory in Port-au-Prince collapsed, was significantly damaged or was deemed unusable for a considerable time. The majority of the affected buildings were unreinforced masonry buildings with and without nominally reinforced concrete frames. Middle America has a similarly high number of unreinforced masonry buildings which, while of slightly different vintage or construction practice, have equally low capacity to resist significant ground shaking. Pictures of downtown Port-au-Prince give vivid examples of what could happen to downtown Main Streets across the New Madrid region.
The Haiti earthquake also provides a view of the impact to society beyond the damage. The collapse of a significant number of schools in Haiti has placed a huge burden on the next generation. So many schools failed in the Port-au-Prince region that the national government suspended the school year for approximately 3 months nationwide, and while many schools outside of the immediate Port-au-Prince region are back to teaching, a significant number of students are still without classrooms in Haiti. As another example, in Chile, the extent of major damage to schools following its M9.0 earthquake three months after Haiti was less impactful; however, the loss of operations due to interior damage and disruption of contents still resulted in closed school buildings for months after the event. The disruption of their education will likely impact this generation of students well beyond the immediate recovery and rebuilding of these two nations.
Business Disruption Risks
Disruption or continuity of business can be just as critical to the recovery of a devastated region as is ability to protect and care for the injured. In Haiti, the garment industry is a major contributor to the national economy. It was imperative that the manufacturers were able to ensure their clients that the production of apparel was operational within days after the earthquake. Had a lengthy down-time ensued, clients likely would have shifted contracts to other providers in different nations, resulting in a critical loss to Haiti’s economic ability to respond and rebuild. It is reported that the massive damage to the port facilities in Kobe, Japan (1995 6.8M) caused much of that port’s shipping commerce to move elsewhere. One of the world’s busiest ports prior to the earthquake, Kobe has yet to regain its former status as Japan’s principal shipping port.
Firestorm and MHP, Inc. Structural Engineers continue to support our clients throughout the United States with preparedness planning and disaster response by participating in post-earthquake reconnaissance in Haiti, maintaining an extensive portfolio of seismic and risk assessment and mitigation experience, and developing continuity plans with clients to ensure better response before, during, and after a disruption or disaster. Preparations are underway for this year’s Great Central U.S. Shakeout (scheduled for February 7, 2012, at 10:15 a.m. CST, http://www.shakeout.org/centralus/). Regardless of your location, we encourage you to look to the Great Central U.S. Shakeout as a great opportunity to test your preparedness. More information on topics like this is forthcoming in our structurally-focused preparedness webinar series for 2012.
Operational Risk - Commentary by Marisol K. Shankar
November 4th, 2011
Operational Risk
HEADLINE: Fire devastates Cerritos strip mall
SUMMARY: About $5.5 million in damage was done to a Cerritos shopping center early Sunday after firefighters were too late to save the building, Los Angeles County Fire Capt. Mark Savage said. “It started collapsing when we were here so we had to pull out,” he said. Firefighters were called to the blaze at the Fountain Plaza Mall at South Street and Gridley Road about 2 a.m.
ANALYSIS: How much do you know about the other tenants in your building?
Unless you own and occupy the entire facility your business is housed in, you are vulnerable not only to natural and man-made disasters, terrorism, and communicable illness / pandemic exposures, but also to the side effects of those same hazards as they happen to other tenants and businesses located around and adjacent to your business.
In this unfortunate case, the flames from the restaurant fire quickly spread through the remainder of the building to engulf 10 businesses on the top floor.
- Who knew about this incident, and finally notified the fire department?
- Was it someone from the restaurant, or a concerned passer-by?
- Did the restaurant’s plan include some sort of automatic notification system alerting the incident response team when the internal fire suppression system became engaged?
- Did the restaurant have an emergency response plan?
These questions lead easily into other questions that we may ask ourselves – do you know your property management’s emergency notification process and incident management plan? What is the building or property management’s business continuity plan for your facility? Does your property management require tenants to have and maintain business continuity plans?
Even the best laid plans may prove useless if your business plans do not coordinate, even slightly, with the other plans in place by building or property management for the site you occupy.
Other threats to your business may arise from tenants near or in your building that may invite terrorism or other threats, such as an FBI or other government branch, a foreign nation’s consul, etc.
What i s your plan for dealing with events that may affect those businesses?
Firestorm’s business continuity protection begins with a proprietary Benchmark/Gap Analysis of an organization’s existing plans, processes and procedures. Our comprehensive Benchmark/Gap Analysis service focuses on operations, emergency response, employees, organization, systems, facilities, communication, and risks – internal and external – that an organization faces.
Using this analysis, businesses and organizations are able to further understand the risks to the organization, and develop plans that can address or mitigate the risks. Understanding the depths of exposure your organization has, can ensure performance goals and objectives are achieved.
As this unfortunate instance shows, business may not have control over the timing of events affecting the organization when you share tenancy with other business owners. However, it is best to start planning a risk mitigation process with a full understanding of the risks entailed before the lack of adequate planning results in a future disruption becoming a real disaster.
Ken O’Dell, Marisol Shankar, and MHP are Firestorm partners and frequent contributors to the Firestorm Disaster Due Diligence Newsletter. To read the current newsletter in its entirety, view archives of previous Newsletters, or to sign up to receive updates, visit Firestorm Disaster Due Diligence.
The Great California ShakeOut - 10/20/2011 @ 10:20am PST
October 14th, 2011
Next Thursday is The Great California ShakeOut…
It is not often that we know when the BIG ONE will hit… but Thursday, October 20, 2011 at 10:20am, California is going to be ROCKED!
MHP is, of course, a participant and at our offices, we will be conducting a small test exercise. We encourage you and all our valued clients to do the same, or at the very least, practice protecting yourself during earthquake shaking using Drop! Cover! Hold on! Register yourself or your firm here: http://www.shakeout.org/register/
Feel free to email Ken O’Dell or Marisol Shankar, or call us at (562) 985-3200 if you have any questions about how to conduct your own drill.
Be counted in the largest earthquake drill ever, and be the example that motivates others to participate and get prepared!
Natural Disaster - Commentary by Ken O’Dell
October 7th, 2011
HEADLINE: September 29, WTTG 5 District of Columbia – (District of Columbia) Engineers find ‘expected ’ damage at monument.
SUMMARY: The team inspecting earthquake damage at the Washington Monument in Washington D.C. is finding ‘expected’ problems with the exterior stones which support the structure. A National Park Service (NPS) spokesman said the agency believes the monument remains structurally sound. “They have identified areas of interest that need further examination.” The monument grounds are closed to tourists.
ANALYSIS: Having been to the top of the Washington Monument on numerous occasions while living on the East Coast, it is with considerable interest that I have watched the stories develop regarding the Virginia Earthquake and, in particular, the inspection of the Monument. My interest is heightened by the fact that I’m a practicing structural engineer in Southern California with ties remaining in the DC area, including my Virginia Professional Engineer’s license. Interestingly enough, early in my career, I had the opportunity to conduct a seismic risk study for another of the large buildings bordering the National Mall. With that understanding comes an awareness that the earthquake which occurred was not outside the realm of possibility or expectation. With the adoption of recent codes such as the International Building Code (IBC) on a more consistent national basis, the potential for, and effects of, earthquake generated ground shaking are becoming better understood and more specifically addressed in areas of our nation outside the “familiar earthquake region” of the West Coast.
When dedicated in 1885, the Washington Monument was the tallest building structure in the world. Although its “tallest structure reign” was cut short by the Eiffel Tower a mere three years later, at just over 555 feet tall the Washington Monument remains the tallest, free standing, unreinforced masonry or stone structure in the world. This means that the structure relies on the bond of the stone units and the mortar between them to maintain integrity. With over 125 years of service, the mortar joints appear to have passed the load test. Of course, with any structure, materials age and points of localized stress develop. Perhaps this begins to explain some of the reasons behind the observed cracks in the stone and loss of mortar beds. It should be noted that this is not unusual or necessarily unexpected. As the article points out, the damage so far observed is ‘expected’. Given the amount of ground shaking and the type of construction, it can be suggested that the Monument performed very well. So, what comes next?
Fortunately, experience with restoration of the Monument is not too far in the distant past. As recently as 1999, a renovation project completely enclosed the Monument in a scaffold so that cleaning of the stone and re-pointing of the mortar joints could be undertaken. Re-pointing is a method whereby old mortar is removed and new material is placed to re-bond joints that may have deteriorated over time or through excessive loading. As with previous renovation projects, some of the actual stone blocks will likely require replacement as well. Considering that masonry and stone buildings have been undergoing renovation for centuries (think of the historic buildings throughout the world), there is a considerable amount of experience to draw from. The process will not be overly complex, but it will be very detailed. With adequate time, energy and a bit of money, the Monument should be back to sharing the views of Washington “soon”.
Ken O’Dell and MHP are Firestorm partners and frequent contributors to the Firestorm Disaster Due Diligence Newsletter. To read the current newsletter in its entirety, view archives of previous Newsletters, or to sign up to receive updates, visit Firestorm Disaster Due Diligence.
MHP is helping to bring USS IOWA to San Pedro
September 7th, 2011
Several months ago MHP joined with the USS IOWA Organizers to help bring the WWII Battleship to San Pedro as a permanent museum and monument. Nearly three football fields long and more than 14 stories high, the Iowa is one of the biggest warships ever built. On its last trip to San Francisco, sailors had to trim its mast by 13 feet to fit under the Golden Gate Bridge. For the new location in San Pedro, MHP has designed the quay towers and gangways for the public to access the ship, and will be the structural engineer of record for other current and future site improvements.
Read More News and Updates at the MHP News Blog.
